No confidence motion by French MPs likely to oust fragile Barnier coalition

French members of parliament will vote on Wednesday on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone’s second-largest economy.
Barring a last-minute surprise, Mr Barnier’s will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a large budget deficit.
The debate is due to start at 4pm local time on Wednesday, with voting about three hours later, parliament officials said, with French president Emmanuel Macron set to return to France from a state visit to Saudi Arabia during the day.
The government’s collapse would leave a hole at the heart of Europe, with Germany also in election mode, weeks in advance of US president-elect Donald Trump re-entering the White House.
“If the government is censured, that will throw France and the French in an insufferable situation,” said interior minister Bruno Retailleau, adding that those backing the no-confidence motion were playing “Russian roulette” with its future.
[ What happens if the French government loses no-confidence vote?Opens in new window ]
Budget minister Laurent Saint-Martin said bringing down the government and its budget plans would mean a larger deficit and more instability.
After weeks of tension, the political crisis came to a head when Mr Barnier, who has been prime minister for barely three months, said he would try to push the social security part of the budget through parliament without a vote after failing to win support from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).
Mr Barnier’s entourage and Ms Le Pen’s camp, who had been propping up the minority coalition, each blamed the other and said they had done all they could to reach a deal on the budget.
“Censuring the budget is for us the only way the constitution gives us to protect the French,” said Ms Le Pen as she arrived in parliament.
The left and the far right combined have enough votes to topple Mr Barnier, and Ms Le Pen has confirmed that her party would vote for a left-wing alliance’s no-confidence Bill. The RN’s no-confidence motion would not be backed by enough politicians.
Mr Barnier earlier warned politicians that voting his government down “would make everything more difficult” for France.
His draft budget had sought to cut the fiscal deficit, which is projected to exceed 6 per cent of national output this year, with €60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts. It sought to drag the deficit down to 5 per cent next year, with ratings agencies keeping a close eye on progress.
If the no-confidence vote goes through, Mr Macron could ask Mr Barnier to stay on in a caretaker role as he seeks a new prime minister which could well happen only next year. Because Mr Macron dissolved parliament in June, he cannot do so again until June 2025
As far as the budget is concerned, if parliament has not adopted it by December 20th, the caretaker government could propose emergency legislation to roll over spending limits and tax provisions from this year. But that would mean that savings measures Mr Barnier had planned would fall by the wayside.
Mr Macron, who won a second mandate in 2022, precipitated the current political crisis by calling snap parliamentary elections in June. His term as president runs until mid-2027 and he cannot be forced out by parliament.